The midterm elections are still being dissected and the race for 2008 is off and running.
The invisible primary -- that preseason horserace of "who stands where" in presidential politics -- is under way.
"As usual, it is starting early," said Dr. Christopher Hull, a political science professor at Georgetown University. "But, in fact, it's starting earlier than usual."
The invisible primary is the name social scientists and pundits give to that time before the real primaries begin -- a time when declared candidates stand alongside "exploratory" hopefuls, all waiting to be ranked by the news media and pollsters in terms of who has raised the most money, who has the most endorsements and who is polling the best.
"There is a significant school of really smart people who suggest that you can predict who the nominee is going to be -- at least the ranked order of the finishers -- with almost complete success by knowing who won the invisible primary," Hull said. "I contend, however, that the actual campaign has a lot to do with it."
Based on the early numbers, three U.S. senators and a former mayor of New York City are the early front-runners in the invisible primary for 2008.
Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain, Democratic New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama are already lining up campaign staff and wooing voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to Hull. So, too, is former Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Hull said Clinton is perceived as a clear front-runner in the Democratic field.
"She is trying to position herself as a moderate -- and is already running towards the center," Hull said. "As Nixon used to say, you have to 'run right, then run left'-- first tap your party's base and then move to the opposite (wing) to win the general election. In the Democrats' case, Mrs. Clinton appears to already be positioning herself for the general election."
Obama, the freshman Democratic senator from Illinois, is gaining rock-star-like visibility and support from many in the media, including talk-show host and business-magnate Oprah Winfrey.
"Obama is a phenomenon," Hull said. "But, we have yet to see how he reacts to the tests and the perils of the presidential race."
The 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., clearly has strong interest in another run, Hull added.
"He may have done himself damage late in the last election cycle, however, with his botched joke -- a phrase that is probably going to be etched on his tombstone," the professor said in reference to a comment made about getting stuck in Iraq.
In addition, former Vice President Al Gore appears to be interested in another run, and Indiana Gov. Evan Bayh, a moderate, is also giving indications he may try for the nomination.
On the Republican side, Hull said it's no surprise to anybody that McCain, who did well in the 2000 contest, is positioning himself for another bid -- and is poised to be front-runner.
"For Republicans, the front-runner usually wins the nomination," he added.
The surprise, he said, is Giuliani's early strength.
"Given his position on gay rights and on gun control, his position on abortion -- and also, to some extent, some of the personal questions that surrounded him when he was mayor of New York -- it is likely we'll see some erosion in those numbers," Hull added.
In addition, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is being mentioned as someone who might appeal to the base of the Republican Party.
"He's regarded as an intellectual leader in the party, and he's regarded as an ideological leader," Hull added.
With the exit of Sen. George Allen of Virginia from the likely calculations because he failed to win re-election to the Senate, Hull said there's a gaping hole on the Republican right.
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is well-poised to benefit from that gap, Hull said.
"Romney has managed to position himself as a mainstream conservative while serving as a Republican governor in a staunchly Democratic state, which is an impressive feat," he added. "It also draws into the calculations, interestingly enough, people like Sen. Sam Brownback, who is a staunch social conservative. Brownback is probably poised to gain in recognition."
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's name is also being bandied about.
"Governor Huckabee has an interesting story, because to some extent, one of his major issues is the obesity issue," Hull said of the official who's dropped quite a few pounds. "He is a sort of a born-again thin person. That is an interesting personal experience he brings to bear."
The Polls: Off and Running
Two major national polls were released today. One, conducted by Opinion Dynamics for Fox News, sampled 900 voters, asking them who they would vote for if the Democratic and Republican primaries were held today.
On the Democratic side, 33 percent of self-identified Democrats said they would support Clinton; 12 percent said Obama; 11 percent, Gore, 8 percent, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards; 6 percent, Kerry; 2 percent, Bayh; 2 percent, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden; 2 percent, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack; 1 percent, retired Gen. Wesley Clark; and 1 percent, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who declared today he will seek his party's nomination.
On the Republican side, Giuliani came in first at 30 percent; McCain scored 23 percent; Gingrich, 9 percent; Romney, 8 percent; Brownback, 3 percent; New York Gov. George Pataki, 2 percent, and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, 1 percent.
A similar poll, the WNBC/Marist Poll, has similar findings, but gave Edwards, the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee, a second-place finish at 14 percent. The poll also listed Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who has indicated she is not a candidate, as garnering 15 percent.
In addition, the Marist Poll mentioned Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel and Huckabee -- all of whom polled 1 percent or less.
"At this point, we know that the early polls are measures of name identification -- people's familiarity with candidates," said Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute.
"Clearly, they are much more familiar with Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Hillary Clinton than they are with any of the other people mentioned, so we have to take these early polls with a grain of salt."
Bowman said the two polls are national samples -- but caucus voters in Iowa and primary voters in New Hampshire in 2008 may have very different opinions by the time they cast their ballots.
"They can propel a candidate," Bowman said. "Let's say a Sam Brownback or a Mitt Romney does well in Iowa -- that can propel him on to New Hampshire or South Carolina, depending on how things line up. And once that happens, people all of the sudden start paying attention, and these numbers can shift."
As it stands, the invisible primary is not make-or-break time for presidential politics, according to both Bowman and Hull.
"If the invisible primary was make-or-break time, then Howard Dean would have been the Democratic nominee in 2004," Hull said. "Clearly the invisible primary was won by Howard Dean. He raised $50 million and was leading pretty dramatically in national polling, but his loss in Iowa transferred the momentum to Kerry."
In the end, the experts say the invisible primary is extremely important for setting the playing field -- but it's not the ballgame, just the pre-season.
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